Stainless Steel Costs Weakened, Profits Narrowed, Raw Material Market Sluggish and Wait-and-See Before the Holiday [SMM Analysis]

This week, stainless steel spot production costs pulled back in sync, narrowing steel mills' profit margins. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on raw material prices on the day, the full cost profit margin fell to -0.51% this week; if calculated using raw material inventory costs, it reached 3.16%.

On the nickel-based raw material cost side, SHFE nickel futures pulled back this week. Driven by arbitrage operations between futures and spot, low-priced spot cargoes were sold off intensively, causing high-grade NPI spot prices to pull back quickly at the start of the week. Subsequently, SHFE nickel stopped falling and rebounded, and high-grade NPI prices recovered accordingly. However, as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, actual market transactions remained sluggish. As of Friday this week, high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade fell 14 yuan per mtu, closing at 1,040 yuan/mtu.

In the stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices weakened with the market this week. Approaching the Spring Festival, traders gradually began holidays, and pre-holiday stockpiling was largely completed; futures fluctuations transmitted to the spot market, with stainless steel finished products and high-grade NPI prices pulling back, driving down stainless steel scrap prices. Wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and transactions were sluggish. Looking ahead, the decline in stainless steel production schedules in February will suppress demand, but scrap steel's economic efficiency still provides support. Additionally, with the post-holiday "Golden March, Silver April" peak consumption season approaching, the market maintains bullish expectations for the future. As of Friday this week, Shanghai 304 off-cuts prices fell 100, with the latest offer around 9,650 yuan/mt.

On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to hold steady this week. Most stainless steel mills had completed pre-holiday stockpiling, and transactions in the high-carbon ferrochrome market were relatively sluggish. Stainless steel production fell significantly in February, leading to a pullback in demand for high-carbon ferrochrome; however, supported by high steel tender prices and chrome ore prices holding up well, ferrochrome prices remained stable for the time being. As of Friday this week, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia held steady WoW, closing at 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content).